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Soleimani A., Mahmoudi M., Rahimi A.. Modeling fertility in Mazandaran Province: using the "Path Analysis". Payesh 2006; 5 (3)
URL: http://payeshjournal.ir/article-1-739-en.html

Objective(s): To evaluate the direct and indirect effects of different factors on fertility usage the path analysis. Methods: Data were obtained from the research project "Evaluating the effective elements on the tempo and quantum of fertility in Mazandaran Province in year 2000", and by a q11estionn11ire containing three sections (demographics, fertility data and family planning). This was a descriptive-analytic study and sampling was perfumed by a two-stage random procedure.
A total of 1343 families were initially included in the study. The research targeted married women aged 10-54 years. We used path analysis to calculate the effect size and 95% confidence intervals for the following set of factors: mothers' age, mothers' education, duration of marriage, age at marriage, and mothers' age at her first pregnancy.
 
Results: In total 1137 women participated m the study. The duration of marriage showed the strongest positive direct effect on fertility (r = 0.428); the second strongest positive effect belonged to mothers' age (r =0.203). Mothers' education had the most powerful negative direct effect (r = -0.182). Mothers' age also had the strongest indirect effect (r = 0.437), while mothers' education showed the greatest negative indirect effect (r - -0.153). All of the calculated effects were statistically significant (P-Value <0.00 I).
Conclusion: This research illustrated the powerful effect of mothers' education on fertility. There is a potential for effective birth control through modification of factors that have a strong influence on fertility. It is difficult to change all of the factors at once, thus as a first step it might be better to concentrate on duration of marriage and mothers' education.