Payesh
2009; 8: 163-170
Accepted for publication: 25 August 2007
[EPub a head of print-12 May 2009]

Objective(s): To propose a model to estimate the incidence of acute cardiac disease and its complications in Iran.
Methods: The Markov Chain Model used to consider all probable outcomes of acute cardiac events in individuals over 40 years old in Iran. We estimated the model parameters using systematic reviews and experts opinions. The conceptual framework was validated and finalized by the expert panel.
Results: Annual ischemic heart disease mortality in population over 40 years old is 14 per 1000 and the ischemic patients who need outpatient care are around 2,935,000 individuals. The number of beds estimated to be necessary in emergency wards and intensive cardiac care units for whole country are estimated 23520 and 14280 respectively. The estimation number of beds needed to service patients who have undergone a surgical intervention is 8540. The number of cardiac specialist for only outpatients' services is 2240 for whole country.
Conclusion: This model may help health policy makers to make evidence based decisions for improving  medical education and better treatment as well as estimating the trend of cardiovascular diseases in Iran.