Payesh
2009; 8: 147-154
Accepted for publication: 1 July 2009
[EPub a head of print-20 Apr. 2009]

Objective(s): This research looked at the current situation of the early warning system for flash floods in Golestan.
Methods: Using the questionnaire developed by the Secretariat of the United Nations' International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) for assessment of early warning systems, we examined the following components in the province's early warning system: hazard knowledge, monitoring and warning, dissemination/communication and response capacity. The first stage of the study examined current literature on the experience gained so far in Iran and worldwide. Next, we reviewed the existing evidence and documentation from the province's Natural Disaster Center. The third phase of the research began as a qualitative study consisting of in-depth interviews with eight specialists and four people residing in disaster-stricken areas. This was followed by the formation of an 8-member Expert Panel that debated the key issues until agreement was reached by at least four thirds of the members.
Results: The study revealed serious flaws in the current warning system, including its inability to make reliable geographical point predictions and possible delays in the transfer of warning from the meteorological services (where most of the predictions are made) to end-users and other organizations. The public receive little warning on rising water levels, and the rare warning messages that do get through are often vague and incomprehensible. There are no clear-cut warning response strategies, including local evacuation programs; hazard maps are non-existent, and response thresholds remain ill-defined.
Conclusion: It is clear that many components of the early flash flood warning system in Golestan are in need of functional improvement. A model- to be tested in future studies- is proposed here for the creation of a Village Disaster Taskforce, based on local capabilities and the concept of initiating the warning process at the local level.