Estimation of pharmaceutical expenditure function in Iran: a time series analysis - Payesh (Health Monitor)
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Volume 17, Issue 2 (March-April 2018)                   Payesh 2018, 17(2): 121-128 | Back to browse issues page

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Mohsen Bayati, Bahman Ahadi Nezhad, Fatemeh Riazi, Nasrin Abolhasanbeigi Galeh Zan. Estimation of pharmaceutical expenditure function in Iran: a time series analysis. Payesh 2018; 17 (2) :121-128
URL: http://payeshjournal.ir/article-1-51-en.html
1- Health Human Resources Research Center, School of Management & Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
2- Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
3- Health Metrics Research Center, Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research, ACECR, Tehran, Iran
4- School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Abstract:   (3724 Views)
Objective (s): Understanding the behavior of drug demand in health sector is very important for health policy makers. In this regard, the present study aimed to estimat the pharmaceutical expenditure function during 1991 to 2010 in Iran.
Methods: This was an analytical study. The study population was urban households in the country. The required data were collected from the published statistics of Iran Statistics Center for a time series of 20 years. The time series ARDL(AutoRegressive Distributive Lag) model, the Stationary Augmented  Dickey Fuller Test and Bound Cointegration Test were applied to estimate the models. The Eviews 7 and Microfit5 software were used.
Results: At short-term and long-term, impact of the price on expenditure of pharmaceutical was statistically insignificant. Income elasticity of pharmaceutical demand at short–term and long–term was 0.27 and 0.41, respectively (Pvalue ˂ 0.01). Elasticity of pharmaceutical expenditure with respect to expenditure of physician visit at short-term and long-term was more than 1.05 and 0.33, respectively, (Pvalue ˂ 0.01). Error Correction Coefficient [ecm (-1)] also was equal -0.66. Almost 66% of imbalance error disappeared in the first year after the imbalance (Pvalue ˂ 0.05).
Conclusion: According to inelasticity of pharmaceutical demand to price and low elasticity to income, health policy makers should consider different issues (e.g. tariffs, household income and Subsidizing) when they make policy.
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type of study: Descriptive |
Accepted: 2018/02/17 | ePublished ahead of print: 2018/03/6 | Published: 2018/03/15

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